These graphs and tables have been created by ChurchGraf Research, Inc., from statistical table data collected by and provided in conference data files.  These data have been elsewhere printed and are available in various conference Journals.
    All forecasts are made only on the merits of the twenty-year trend data, using an exponential-smoothing model.  Eighty passes are made through the data and the best forecast is chosen based on the smallest mean squared error (MSE).
    "Expected" dollar values are computed using regression analysis based on the church's worship attendance size, producing a value showing what churches of comparable size might have paid.  "Expected" dollar values which compute to less than zero are not displayed.
    "Deflated" dollar values provide a comparison with the cost-of-living over time based on the first trend year.  That value in any year shows its worth in terms of its 1992 dollar value.
    Page format ©copyright 2003, ChurchGraf Research, Inc.; permission to reprint in entirety is granted.
 

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